Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Collinsville Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 17.0% | 16 | 9-7-0 | 56.2% | 55.0% | 54.7% | +1.9 |
| Water Fractal | 15.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 63.4% | +8.6 |
| Water Genbu | 7.2% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -0.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 7 | 4-1-2 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 66.7% | +8.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.6% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 45.5% | -2.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.7% | +13.2 |
| Wind Allies | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.5 |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 52.7% | +1.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 36.3% | -10.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.7% | +13.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penumbral Waltz | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cry for Help | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Zephyr | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slimeshield | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |